According to the National Restaurant Association (NRA) September restaurant sales posted a modest increase. Higher vaccination rates and easing of dining restrictions in much of the country allowed more capacity and good weather kept outdoor dining appealing.
Unfortunately most operators say that the gains are not sustainable. About 60% indicated that business conditions worsened compared to June. In fact when adjusting for inflation, sales were actually down a half of a percent from July.
Earlier in the summer it appeared that the pandemic was fading and food establishments experienced a surge of reservations with sales hitting recent highs. Then the increase of Covid infections due to the Delta variant kept people from wanting to dine inside and the business stalled.
Ongoing challenges with the supply chain complicated business by keeping prices for goods high, when they were available. Some businesses are dealing with a lack of things like take out containers. Factories are still generally working below capacity and the shipping container shortage and trucker shortage means that surprise increase in prices are acting as a punch in the gut to many owners.
Above all, labor shortages continued to present the biggest problem for the industry. Over a million jobs have been lost in the food service industry compared to pre-pandemic levels and the overall number of restaurants is down 13% from the spring of 2020.
According to the NRA survey, about half of restaurant owners said that they aren’t yet capable of opening to full capacity due to a lack of staff. Some owners are staying closed for some days they would normally be open. Limiting menu offerings and reducing seating capacity are also ways some are dealing with the problems raised from a lack of cooks and servers.
Where are all the workers?
Many experienced workers seem to have left the industry permanently. Having been forced to take months off from work due to the pandemic added to the the industry’s inherent uncertainty for workers. Some took the time off to start new careers and some started their own small businesses.
For Danielle Walker, 32, in St. Petersburg, Fla., it’s not about the pay, it’s not about the boss, it’s about “how people treat each other. It’s about a lack of civility, compassion and patience.”
She started working as a server in restaurants in Upstate New York when she was 16, moving to Florida in 2012 to work in familiar chains like TGI Friday’s and BJ’s Restaurant and Brewhouse before landing a job in fine dining where she made between $200 and $300 per night. She’s gotten out of the industry permanently, she said, and is making opal jewelry that she sells primarily on Etsy.*
As much as outdoor dining has helped many businesses survive, it has also meant that the dining area is much further from the kitchen so servers can’t be as efficient. As we approach winter, much of the country will have to shut down outdoor dining again.
Overall there is still hope that as some states vaccination rates continue to grow, restrictions on indoor dining might ease and the Holiday season will be good for business. The year as a whole looks to be at least significantly better than 2020.
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