2025: Boom or Bust for The Food & Beverage Industry? What Trends Signal for 2026

Jan 15, 2026 | News

Summary

• 2025 was neither a boom nor a bust: sales held up in pockets, but traffic remained weak and performance gaps widened between brands that nailed “value + experience” and those that didn’t.
• Menu inflation cooled, yet “food away from home” prices still rose faster than groceries, keeping pressure on price-sensitive diners and mid-tier concepts.
• Casual dining’s comeback and strength in chicken, Mexican, and coffee/beverage contrasted with sluggish burgers, sandwiches, and pizza, creating a more polarized competitive landscape.
• Off-premises matured: discovery moved further toward social and app ecosystems, while customer expectations remained a reputational battleground.
• For 2026, forecasters expect improved real growth if policy uncertainty and input spikes ease.

Was 2025 “good” or “bad”? Demand held, traffic didn’t

Black Box Intelligence’s monthly benchmarks captured the pattern: mid-year same-store sales growth ran above 2% in July and August, with traffic hovering near flat. But by November, sales growth stalled at 0.0% while traffic fell -2.9% year over year, its weakest reading since February.23

That traffic problem matters because it’s hard to price your way to a “good year” indefinitely. Operators who won in 2025 generally did it by making diners feel the occasion was “worth it”, through sharp value architecture, better hospitality, and more reliable operations, not just discounts.3

How 2025 compared

Compared to previous years, 2025 continued the trend of post-pandemic normalization rather than starting a new growth phase. Black Box’s 2024 review showed flat same-store sales (0.0%) and a -2.8% drop in traffic, following 2023’s 3.8% sales increase and -1.4% traffic decline. 4 Technomic projected modest 2025 growth for major chains, with weaker performance in burgers, sandwiches, and pizza, but stronger results in chicken, Mexican, and coffee/beverage segments. 5

The forces that shaped 2025

1) “Value” got redefined (again)

In 2025, “value” referred to predictability as well as affordability. Brands offering stable entry-level options appealed to consumers trading down, including higher-income shoppers who increasingly compared prices. 35

2) Menu inflation cooled, but restaurant prices still ran hot

Inflation didn’t disappear; it just changed shape. BLS data through late 2025 still showed “food away from home” rising meaningfully year over year, with full-service meals increasing faster than limited-service meals.6

The National Restaurant Association’s menu-price tracking also highlights a stubborn, slow-and-steady climb. That matters: every incremental price move increases the need for execution that justifies the ticket.7

3) Casual dining’s resurgence came with a warning label

Casual dining was one of 2025’s most notable bright spots in chain performance, with several legacy brands benefiting from consumers seeking a full experience at a price that still feels rational.12

4) Off-premises matured; discovery went social

Delivery and takeout weren’t ‘new’ anymore in 2025, they were infrastructure. The focus shifted to discovery and experience quality. DoorDash’s 2025 Delivery Trends report points to social-led discovery among younger diners and growing comfort with AI-driven recommendations.8

ACSI’s 2025 Restaurant and Food Delivery Study shows delivery satisfaction improving modestly, but fees and fulfillment basics remain common friction points.9

5) Beverage alcohol faced a tougher year

For the beverage side of the industry, 2025 followed a difficult 2024. IWSR reported 2024 total beverage alcohol volumes down 1% with value up 1%, and argued that 2025 would be shaped by ‘selective premiumisation’ and lifestyle-driven moderation, people drinking less often, but trading up on the occasions that matter.10

6) Tariffs and policy volatility added noise to cost forecasts

Even as restaurant inflation moderated, 2025 brought a fresh layer of uncertainty for imported ingredients, packaging, and equipment. President Trump’s April 2, 2025 executive order establishing a reciprocal tariff regime (with subsequent adjustments later in 2025) raised the risk of sudden cost moves and supply chain reshuffling.1415

What defined the year

  • The “winners and losers” narrative went mainstream.
  • Technomic’s chain outlook called out chicken, Mexican, and coffee/beverage as relative bright spots, while burgers, sandwiches, and pizza struggled to grow in real terms.5
  • Mid-priced concepts got squeezed. Washington, D.C. as was an extreme example: 92 restaurants closed in 2025 (nearly double 2022), with mid-priced operators hit hardest, an illustration of what happens when costs rise and demand softens for the ‘middle’ of the market.11
  • Price restraint became a strategy, not just a talking point. Some fast-casual leaders publicly emphasized holding pricing where possible, betting that traffic and loyalty would outperform short-term margin grabs.12

So what do the trends say about 2026?

The emerging consensus is cautious optimism: not a snap-back, but a better environment for real growth, if uncertainty and supply spikes ease. NRN’s late-2025 outlook noted that 2025 “was much softer than many predicted,” and cited Technomic expectations for improved real growth in 2026.13

Practically, that means 2026 is likely to reward operators who treat ‘value’ as an operating system, not a promotion calendar. Three bets look especially important:

  1. Make consistency the product.
  • When consumers are skeptical, the basics (food quality, order accuracy, speed, cleanliness) become the differentiator. It’s also where hidden costs show up first, equipment downtime, deferred repairs, and preventable waste.
  1. Protect margins with fewer surprises.
  • Policy and input volatility (including tariff risk) makes forecasting harder. Teams that systematize maintenance, parts planning, and vendor response times reduce the odds that a bad week becomes a bad quarter.
  1. Invest where tech pays back.
  • After years of experimentation, 2026 is poised to be more about ROI, automation, better throughput, and smarter off-premises execution, rather than shiny pilots.

Footnotes

  1. Restaurant Dive
  2. Black Box Intelligence (Aug 2025)
  3. Black Box Intelligence (Nov 2025)
  4. Black Box Intelligence (2024 review)
  5. Nation’s Restaurant News (Technomic 2025 forecast)
  6. BLS CPI release (food away from home)
  7. National Restaurant Association (Menu Prices)
  8. DoorDash (2025 Delivery Trends)
  9. ACSI (Restaurant & Food Delivery Study 2025)
  10. IWSR (Beverage alcohol trends 2025)
  11. Nation’s Restaurant News (D.C. closures)
  12. Axios (Cava pricing stance)
  13. Nation’s Restaurant News (2026 expectations)
  14. White House (EO 14257)
  15. Federal Register (EO 14257 text)